2026 Arizona Short Term Rental Owner Market Update
Phoenix Short Term Rental Market Recap: 2025 Lookback & 2026 Outlook
As we wrap up 2025, many Phoenix short term rental owners are asking the same questions: How did the market actually perform? and What should we expect in 2026?
This report breaks down how our managed portfolio performed in 2025, how those results compare to broader Phoenix short-term rental trends, and what property owners should realistically plan for in the year ahead.
Phoenix Short Term Rental Performance in 2025
Occupancy Stayed Healthy, With Predictable Seasonality
Across our entire portfolio, average occupancy reached 71% in 2025, reflecting continued demand for Phoenix short term rentals despite economic headwinds.
| Rental Type | Avg. Occupancy |
|---|---|
| Short Term Rentals (STR) | 71% |
| Mid Term Rentals (MTR – 30+ days) | 65% |
Seasonal trends followed familiar Phoenix patterns:
- Peak season: February–March (77–80%)
- Summer months: June–October (72–79%), driven by intentional rate reductions
- Shoulder seasons: Late spring and fall/winter (58–65%)
Phoenix continues to benefit from year-round demand tied to weather, sports, healthcare travel, and seasonal relocation.
Pricing Pressures Impacted ADR and RevPAR
While occupancy remained solid, pricing softened in 2025 as competition increased and travelers became more cost-conscious.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Daily Rate (ADR) | $201 | $191 | ↓ 5% |
| RevPAR (Rev. per avail. room) | $142 | $136 | ↓ 4% |
The most noticeable revenue declines began in September 2025, with each month trailing 2024 benchmarks. Inflation, affordability concerns, and cautious consumer spending may have all played a role.
Guest Booking Behavior: Faster Decisions, Shorter Windows
One of the biggest shifts in the 2025 Phoenix short term rental market was shorter booking lead times.
| Booking Window | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| 1–7 days | 19% | 21% |
| 8–30 days | 23% | 35% |
| 31–60 days | 23% | 24% |
| 61–90 days | 16% | 15% |
| 91+ days | 19% | 5% |
Guests are increasingly booking closer to arrival, making dynamic pricing, strong listing visibility, and last-minute optimization more important than ever.
Stay Lengths Remained Consistent
Despite economic uncertainty, length of stay patterns were largely unchanged year over year:
| Length of Stay | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| 3–7 nights | 86% | 83% |
| 7–14 nights | 8% | 9% |
| 15–30 nights | 3% | 4% |
| 30+ nights | 3% | 4% |
Phoenix remains primarily a short stay leisure and transient market, with mid term rentals serving as a strategic supplement rather than a replacement.
Rising Costs & a More Competitive Market
2025 also brought higher operating costs across the board. Most service providers increased pricing, including:
- Housekeeping
- Pool service
- Landscaping
- Pest control
- Utilities
At the same time, Phoenix market inventory appears to have leveled off compared to prior years, but competition remains intense. Many underperforming listings stayed active, contributing to price pressure rather than exiting the market.
The result: a market where execution matters more than ever.
Guest Expectations Are Higher — Reviews Are Harder
As guests become more experienced with short term rentals, expectations continue to rise. In today’s Phoenix market, the basics are no longer differentiators — they’re assumed.
Beyond cleanliness and communication, the strongest drivers of 5-star reviews in 2025 were:
- Smooth, reliable check-ins
- Location alignment and neighborhood clarity
- Safety and security features
- Thoughtful design and décor
- Bed comfort and sleep quality
At the same time, review standards have shifted. Many guests now consider a stay “excellent” as a 4-star experience, even when issues are outside of the property’s control. Managing guest expectations can be just as important as managing the home.
What Phoenix Property Owners Can Expect in 2026
While uncertainty remains, there are early signs of cautious optimism:
- Occupancy and revenue pacing for 2026 are currently ahead of this time last year
- Phoenix remains a top-tier destination with diversified demand drivers
- Well-located, well-managed homes continue to outperform market averages
That said, 2026 is unlikely to reward a passive approach. Success will depend on:
- Adaptive pricing strategies
- Ongoing investment in property quality
- Operational efficiency in a tighter margin environment
- A relentless focus on guest experience
Our Commitment to metro Phoenix Short Term Rental Owners
Our goal at Short Term Rental Manager is to help property owners navigate an evolving Phoenix short-term rental market with realistic expectations, proactive strategy, and consistent execution as guest behavior continues to change.
One way we stay ahead of these changes is through close attention to guest communication and guest interactions. Clear, professional communication has always been a core part of our service, and it has become even more important as guest expectations — and tactics — evolve.
As artificial intelligence becomes more widely adopted, we are seeing it increasingly influence how guests communicate. In some cases, AI is being used to attempt to manufacture issues, push for unwarranted concessions, or frame requests in ways designed to elicit commitments that are not operationally or contractually realistic. We are also seeing more sophisticated communication from mid-term guests around tenancy language and lease boundaries.
These trends reinforce why proactive guest management, strong documentation, and experienced oversight matter more than ever. Protecting owner interests today requires not just strong pricing and operations, but also informed, thoughtful handling of guest interactions.
As 2026 unfolds, we will continue to closely monitor market conditions, guest behavior, and emerging risks — adjusting pricing, operations, and guest experience strategies to keep your property competitive, protected, and positioned for long-term success.
If you have questions about your property’s performance or want to discuss opportunities for improvement in 2026, we’re always here to help. Thank you again for trusting Short Term Rental Manager with your property. We look forward to another year of success and growth together!
Warm regards,
Short Term Rental Manager